Dollar Gains, Crypto Slides, Key Earnings in Focus

The euro started the week lower against the dollar, slipping more than 0.30%  after reaching a daily high of 1.1711. Market participants are closely watching developments in Ukraine and upcoming U.S. monetary policy events, which are expected to drive near-term sentiment.

Positive signals emerged from recent meetings in Washington involving U.S. President Donald Trump, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, and European leaders. Trump described the day as successful, highlighting Russia’s agreement to certain security guarantees, albeit in exchange for territorial concessions. Responding to German Chancellor Merz’s call for a ceasefire, Trump noted that Washington has historically helped resolve conflicts even without formal truces. He also indicated plans to pursue a trilateral U.S.-Ukraine-Russia meeting.

A swift resolution to the conflict could support the euro, given the European Union’s heavy reliance on energy imports. Stabilized oil and natural gas prices would provide a boost to the broader Eurozone economy.

Traders are also eyeing the release of the latest Federal Reserve minutes and Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s keynote speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium, both of which could influence dollar strength.

Meanwhile, the European economic calendar is packed this week. Key releases include HCOB Flash PMIs for August, inflation data, and Germany’s GDP figures—all likely to shape market expectations for the European Central Bank’s policy stance.

Gold prices were largely steady on Monday with investors adopting a cautious stance ahead of potential developments in the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hole symposium.

Markets remain sensitive to geopolitical developments after U.S. President Donald Trump met Russian President Vladimir Putin last week and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy on Monday, along with European leaders. While Trump proposed a potential peace framework, including security guarantees for Ukraine and possible trilateral talks with Russia, Kyiv has rejected any territorial concessions. Continued hostilities over the weekend have reinforced caution, keeping investors on the sidelines.

The U.S. dollar’s modest gains this week have also weighed on bullion, as dollar-denominated metals become more expensive for other currency holders. Attention is now on the Fed’s July policy minutes on Wednesday and Chair Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole speech (August 21–23), with markets speculating over potential rate cuts amid mixed U.S. inflation and payroll data. Historically, gold performs well in low-rate, high-uncertainty environments, supporting demand amid geopolitical and policy-related risks.

Oil prices slipped in Asian trading on Tuesday as investors assessed the outcome of U.S.-Ukraine talks and sought clues on the Russian oil supply outlook, with attention now turning to a possible meeting between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Both contracts WTI and Brent Oil gained on Monday following U.S. Trade Adviser Peter Navarro’s criticism of India’s purchases of discounted Russian crude, which he said were funding the war in Ukraine, sparking renewed concerns over global supply flows.

President Trump hosted Zelenskiy at the White House on Monday, joined by leaders from major European nations, in a high-stakes summit aimed at finding pathways to end Russia’s war in Ukraine.

Trump also said he had begun arranging a direct meeting between Zelenskiy and Putin, potentially followed by a trilateral discussion, keeping hopes for negotiations alive.

Investors are also monitoring the impact of the 25% secondary U.S. tariffs on India, set to take effect on August 27, as White House adviser Navarro warned that India must halt Russian oil imports or face further consequences. Indian refiners, including Indian Oil Corp, have indicated they will continue imports if economically viable. Analysts added that postponed trade talks add further uncertainty to energy flows.

Market participants are closely watching ongoing diplomatic developments, hoping for clarity on potential peace negotiations and their implications for global oil supply.

U.S. equities ended Monday with modest moves as investors digested the White House meeting between President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and awaited this week’s Jackson Hole Symposium for signals on interest rates.

Last week, all three indices notched consecutive weekly gains, with the US 30, US 500, and US Tech 100 reaching new all-time highs.

During the Washington talks, Trump pledged U.S. involvement in Ukraine’s security assistance, though he did not provide details on the scope of support. Zelenskiy described the discussions as “very good” regarding security guarantees. Trump also indicated plans to speak with Russian President Vladimir Putin, potentially paving the way for a trilateral U.S.-Ukraine-Russia meeting.

All eyes are now on Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s Friday speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium. Markets are pricing in a 84% chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut in September, following softer-than-expected payroll and consumer inflation data. Strong producer inflation last week reduced expectations of a larger reduction.

Retailers will continue reporting Q2 results this week, offering insights into the U.S. consumer. Walmart and Target are among the most closely watched, alongside Home Depot, Lowe’s, and TJX Companies.  Other notable earnings this week include Workday, Alibaba, Baidu, Palo Alto Networks, and Analog Devices.

Tesla shares rose despite reports of U.K. lease discounts up to 40%. These discounts are subsequently passed on to consumers, resulting in significantly lower monthly lease payments.