Eurozone CPI, U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls, U.S. Unemployment Rate

The EUR/USD pair edged lower on Thursday pressured by a firmer US Dollar amid renewed hopes for a thaw in US-China trade tensions. Market participants are now focused on the upcoming US April Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, due later in the day.

Sentiment around the US Dollar improved after a social media account linked to Chinese state media reported that Washington has reached out to Beijing to resume discussions on President Trump’s proposed 145% tariffs. Comments from senior US officials, including Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett, reinforced optimism for a potential easing of trade hostilities, lending support to the Greenback and weighing on the Euro.

Economic data out of the US on Thursday painted a mixed picture. Weekly Initial Jobless Claims rose to 241,000 for the week ending April 26, exceeding expectations of 224,000 and marking an increase from the prior week’s revised reading of 223,000. However, the ISM Manufacturing PMI came in slightly better than forecast, easing to 48.7 in April from 49.0 in March but beating market expectations of 48.

Meanwhile, the Euro faces pressure from rising expectations of monetary easing by the European Central Bank (ECB). Markets have largely priced in a 25 basis point rate cut at the ECB’s June meeting, as policymakers brace for slower inflation and economic growth—partly a consequence of US trade policy.

Gold prices retreated more than 1% on Thursday, as investor risk appetite strengthened. Sentiment improved after reports surfaced that Washington had reached out to Beijing to initiate trade negotiations.

Additionally, US President Donald Trump’s move to delay some automotive tariffs and progress on trade agreements with India, South Korea, and Japan further supported investor optimism, fueling demand for the US Dollar at gold’s expense.

Moreover, US bond prices declined on Thursday, pushing yields higher and further pressuring gold. The 10-year Treasury yield rose six basis points to 4.229%, while real yields, measured by 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS), climbed to 1.99%.

With the April NFP report due later today, traders will be watching closely for signs of further economic weakness.

Oil prices climbed on Thursday after U.S. President Donald Trump warned of potential secondary sanctions on countries purchasing Iranian oil. The move follows the postponement of nuclear talks between the U.S. and Iran, originally scheduled for this Saturday in Rome.

President Trump stated that any nation or entity continuing to buy Iranian oil or petrochemical products would face immediate U.S. sanctions. His warning came after a senior Iranian official confirmed the fourth round of nuclear negotiations had been delayed, with a new date dependent on Washington's stance.

Within OPEC+, discussions are underway about increasing production again in June. According to sources familiar with the matter, several member countries are expected to push for a second consecutive monthly output hike when eight OPEC+ nations meet on May 5 to finalize a June production plan.

On the demand side, concerns remain. The U.S. economy contracted for the first time in three years during the first quarter of 2025, as a surge in imports—driven by companies rushing to front-run rising tariff costs—disrupted domestic growth. The data underscored the economic uncertainty stemming from President Trump’s erratic trade policies.

U.S. stocks advanced on Thursday, led by strong gains in technology shares, as upbeat earnings from Microsoft and Meta Platforms reinforced investor optimism around the ongoing boom in artificial intelligence.

Meta Platforms jumped more than 4% after the social media giant beat quarterly earnings expectations and raised its full-year capital expenditure forecast to between $64 billion and $72 billion—up from previous guidance of $60–$65 billion. The company cited growing investment in artificial intelligence across its advertising infrastructure and content recommendation systems as key drivers of performance.

Microsoft rallied over 8% after posting a 13% rise in first-quarter revenue, boosted by strong demand in its cloud computing business. The company projected cloud revenue growth of 34% to 35% in the fiscal fourth quarter, easing concerns about macroeconomic headwinds.

Economic data released Thursday showed initial jobless claims rose more than expected, increasing by 18,000 to 241,000 for the week ending April 26. The uptick suggests potential softening in the labor market and may reflect early signs of layoffs tied to tariff-related pressures.

The report came ahead of today’s April Nonfarm Payrolls data, which will be closely scrutinized following news that the U.S. economy contracted last quarter for the first time in three years.